Can the next move of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) be predicted?

Current Performance

In the last trading session, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) added its value by 0.89% closing at the price of $133.29. The stock currently has market capitalization of 699.31 Billion, with average volume of 30.59 Million shares.

Volatility and Next Move

While predicting the next move of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), volatility is an important factor to look at. Currently Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has weekly volatility of 0.90%% and monthly volatility of 0.97%%. In the words of investopedia.com, volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk about the size of changes in a security’s value. A higher volatility means that a security’s value can potentially be spread out over a larger range of values. This means that the price of the security can change dramatically over a short time period in either direction. A lower volatility means that a security’s value does not fluctuate dramatically, but changes in value at a steady pace over a period of time.

Beta is also a factor of measure of the relative volatility of a particular stock to the market. Currently Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is showing beta of 1.17. This particular value of beta suggests that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has historically moved 117% for every 100% move in the benchmark, based on price level.

ATR or Average True Range is also another factor for projecting volatility of a particular stock. A stock experiencing a high level of volatility has a higher ATR, and a low volatility stock has a lower ATR. The ATR may be used by market technicians to enter and exit trades, and it is a useful tool to add to a trading system. It was created to allow traders to more accurately measure the daily volatility of an asset by using simple calculations. The indicator does not indicate the price direction, rather it is used primarily to measure volatility caused by gaps and limit up or down moves.

Currently Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has ATR of 1.55.

Another factor for predicting the next move of a particular stock is Relative Strength Index or RSI. The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator developed by noted technical analyst Welles Wilder that compares the magnitude of recent gains and losses over a specified time period to measure speed and change of price movements of a security. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) currently has RSI of 89.37. RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30, currently the given RSI of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) suggests that the stock is Overbought.

Earnings Per Share (EPS) and EPS Growth Rate

EPS is another important factor while making the decision of buying, selling or holding of particular share. Currently EPS for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is at $8.35.

Earnings means profit; it’s the money a company makes. It is often evaluated in terms of earnings per share (EPS) – this is the most important indicator of a company’s financial health. Earnings reports are released four times per year and are followed very closely by Wall Street. In the end, growing earnings are a good indication that a company is on the right path to providing a solid return for investors.

EPS growth rate is also important while making decisions on the basis of EPS and future profitability. EPS growth (earnings per share growth) illustrates the growth of earnings per share over time. EPS growth rates help investors identify stocks that are increasing or decreasing in profitability.

EPS growth for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) this year is estimated at -9.9% while EPS growth next year stands at 101.2%. Long term EPS growth rate for 5 year is calculated at 9.25% while EPS growth for the previous 5 years is 16%.

Company Profile

Apple Inc. is engaged in designing, manufacturing and marketing mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players. The Company’s products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and Mac OS X operating systems, iCloud, and a range of accessory, service and support offerings. It sells its products worldwide through its online stores, its retail stores, its direct sales force, third-party wholesalers, and resellers. Apple Inc. is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

 

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